JLI First Forecasts

Image Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns expressed. The attached spreadsheet has been updated to address items 2 and 3 below. 1) The JLI algorithm is not a “forecast” per se, but…

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…

CET cooling in line with solar model prediction

Yesterday, WUWT carried the headline: Coldest Spring In England Since 1891.  This essay offers what could be an explanation for it. Judge for yourself. – Anthony Guest essay by David Archibald Back in 2006, I published my first paper in climate science. That paper, Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response, predicted a…

Tropical lizards safe from climate change forced extinction

Some good news from Dartmouth College Climate change may have little impact on tropical lizards Dartmouth study contradicts predictions of widespread extinction A new Dartmouth College study finds human-caused climate change may have little impact on many species of tropical lizards, contradicting a host of recent studies that predict their widespread extinction in a rapidly…

In retrospect, we ‘predicted’ global warming would slow

Reader Markx writes: The title says it all here: “…Retrospective prediction…” indeed. How could a researcher keep a straight face and write such a title? (Maybe a subversive element at work?) Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo & Muhammad Asif The Abstract: 

Finally, a climate forecast model that works?

Note: Short term predictions are relatively easy, it remains to be seen if this holds up over the long term. I have my doubts. – Anthony Guest post by Frank Lemke The Global Warming Prediction Project is an impartial, transparent, and independent project where no public, private or corporate funding is involved. It is about…

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas, the search path of a foraging animal, the price of a fluctuating stock…

The Met Office COPing response

Willis Eschenbach notes that the COP predictions from the Met Office, which I highlighted here, are all over the road. He writes: In the most recent one, they didn’t make a prediction, but they included the historical record, so let me start with that: I’ve put rulers on it so we can read the happenings.…

Day of reckoning draws nearer for IPCC

According to Dr. Clive Best, A key prediction from the 2007 IPCC WG1 report fails statistical tests. AR4 figure for long term predictions for each scenario Abstract: Global temperatures measured since 2005 are incompatible with the IPCC model predictions made in 2007 by WG1 in AR4. All subsequent temperature data from 2006 to 2011 lies between…

Pielke Senior on Climate Science Misconceptions #3

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Climate Science Myths And Misconceptions – Post #3 On Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Predictions Of Changes In Decadal And Longer Statistics Of Extreme Weather This past Friday, Ben Herman commented in Guest Post By Ben Herman Of The University Of Arizona that “Scientific predictions are just that, predictions, and until…

Why are we so bad at long range weather forecasting?

By WUWT regular “justthefacts” In researching the use of tidal forces in long range weather forecasting, I came across an interesting August 30th, 2010 Associated Press/ MSNBC article based on interviews with Farmer’s Almanac Editors Sandi Duncan and Peter Geiger, and Ed O’Lenic from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: “Good news, winter haters: After record snowfall…

NASA’s Hathaway revises the sunspot prediction down again

From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page: Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall. Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and there’s been…