Intensifying Typhoon Lan threatens Japan – but may miss mainland

/ October 18, 2017

Dr. Ryan Maue, now of weather.us has been tracking Typhoon Lan, which is predicted to become a “super” typhoon in the next two days. Here in a recent model output for Saturday:

He notes: HWRF develops concentric eyewalls — massive size Typhoon Lan. Research Maps page:

He adds:

The Japan Meteorological Agency has the details now:

Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 October
Scale –
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°00′ (14.0°)
E131°20′ (131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 560 km (300 NM)
N 390 km (210 NM)

The JMI central pressure prediction is a bit more conservative, at 945hPa:

Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 October
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E130°00′ (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

And, the worst case pressure for Lan from JMI at this point is predicted to be 920hPa:

Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25′ (23.4°)
E130°40′ (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 540 km (290 NM)

The JMI forecast track suggests the typhoon will miss Japan completely:

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1721.html

That jog in the track is curious, we shall see. It bears watching.

Related posts