Guest post by David Middleton
The folks at the logical fallacy factory must be working overtime…
According to Nasa, in 2016 the Earth’s surface temperature shattered the previous record for hottest year by 0.12°C. That record was set in 2015, which broke the previous record by 0.13°C. That record had been set in 2014, beating out 2010, which in turn had broken the previous record set in 2005.
If you think that seems like a lot of record-breaking hot years, you’re right. The streak of three consecutive record hot years is unprecedented since measurements began in 1880. In the 35 years between 1945 and 1979, there were no record-breakers. In the 37 years since 1980, there have been 12. The video below illustrates all of the record-breaking years in the Nasa global surface temperature record since 1880.
Firstly, according to the satellite data, the record had stood since 1998 and 2016 was technically a statistical tie with 1998…
Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie, with a higher probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998. The main difference was the extra warmth in the Northern Hemisphere in 2016 compared to 1998.
Monthly global lower troposphere anomaly. December 1978 to December 2016. Credit: UAH
Secondly, “in the 35 years between 1945 and 1979, there were no record-breakers” because the Earth’s climate was cooling…
Thirdly, from 1937-1945, there were four “record-breakers” in 1937, 1941, 1943 and 1944. Back then, we were breaking global temperature records once every two years…
Data processed by http://www.woodfortrees.org. Data from Hadley Centre. File: hadcrut4_monthly_ns_avg.txt.
Conclusion
So what? Even if we were “now breaking global temperature records once every three years,” it wouldn’t be unprecedented and we actually had more frequent record breaking at a time when atmospheric CO2 levels were in the range of 305-310 ppmv…
- Record pace of record-breakers with 305-310 ppmv CO2
