The reason for so much bad science is not that talent is rare, not at all; what is rare is character.” –Sigmund Freud, H/T William Readdy
Number of the Week: Approximately 31.6
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The reporting of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan continues with the sensationalism of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant dominating over the human suffering caused by the natural disaster. In the mid-week, three workers at Reactor # 3 stepped into a pool of water that was more radioactive than expected. Reports from AP, and others, speculated that the radioactivity of this water may indicate a breach in the steel reactor vessel. Adding to the fears, Reactor # 3 is fueled by a combination of plutonium and uranium. However, other reports stated that readings from the reactor instruments indicate no change in reactor pressure, which indicates no breach in the reactor vessel. As of this writing, the cause of higher than expected radioactivity in the water is unresolved.
Evidence increases that the automatic mechanisms shutting down the nuclear reaction at all reactors performed as designed and back-up power went on when the reactors were disconnected from the grid. (According to reports, thirteen other nuclear power plants were affected by the earthquake and functioned as designed.) As discussed in TWTW last week, it was the tsunami that followed, about one hour later, which created the emergency at Dai-ichi by destroying the back-up power required to pump cooling water through the reactors and the cooling pools. Reports are conflicting, but, apparently, the tsunami was up to 5 meters (15 feet) higher than anticipated in the design plan for the power plant and sea wall.
The placement of fuel assembly cooling pools on top of the reactor containment structures was a second major flaw in the forty-year-old plans. No doubt such flaws will be addressed in the future.
As the sensationalism of the nuclear incident in Japan diminishes, even as the human tragedy continues, the speculation is shifting to what will happen to the nuclear power industry in Japan and world-wide. In a single issue, the normally staid Wall Street Journal, published articles containing opposing views for Japan: one, no change; two, the industry is derailed. Similar conflicting views abound. Germany, apparently, has reversed course, again, and will shut down its nuclear industry. Italy stopped permitting for a year.
Other than completing construction of a US Tennessee Valley Authority plant started in the 1980’s, the US has no nuclear plants under construction. The Federal government announced reviews of the current operating plants and the on-site storage of spent fuel and other waste. Of course, by closing down the nation’s only engineered nuclear waste facility, at Yucca Mountain, the current administration created a trap for the US nuclear industry. The environmental industry will bitterly fight any new nuclear projects without an existing nuclear waste storage facility, even though the environmental industry bitterly fought, and succeeded, in preventing such a storage facility. (SEPP thinks spent fuel should be recycled, not buried.)
Although it declared to suspend approvals of proposed new projects pending further review, China is pushing forward in its quest to be the world leader in modern nuclear power.
According to reports, the estimated 27 power plants under construction (sources vary) include the following: 18 are advanced designs of the French Generation II pressurized water reactors, 5 are Westinghouse AP 1000 Generation III modular reactors, and 2 are Areva EPR (first called European Pressurized Reactor) which are Generation III plus. Only Finland and France have an Areva EPR under construction and both are experiencing delays and cost overruns. Yet, China is starting two.
In addition, in April, China plans to start construction on the first full-sized pebble bed, modular, nuclear power plant, the HTGR, that will use the inert gas helium, rather than water, for a coolant. (Similar reactors have been tried in Germany and South Africa, but abandoned.) China is calling its venture a necessary step to a Generation IV nuclear power plant.
As explained TWTW last week, Generation III plus reactors have passive safety features – no operators, external power or pumps, etc. are necessary to control the cooling in case of an emergency.
In addition, modular construction as in the AP 1000 and HTGR, with standardization of parts, should allow greater control of construction costs and time tables, reduction of costs with volume, enhanced quality control, and provide systematized maintenance. Many of these issues arise with US reactors that are in a variety of sizes and types.
As the West becomes more introspective, and politicians allied with the environmental industry call for their vision of “21st Century renewable power,” China is becoming the world leader in modern nuclear power.
(Please see articles under “China Leads in Nuclear,” “Calming Fears of Nuclear Energy,” “Fanning Fears of Nuclear Energy,” and “Responses and Issues Remaining.’
****************************
Number of the Week: Approximately 31.6. Last week, in discussing the Richter scale, TWTW omitted explaining the second part of the Richter formula, which includes the square root of 10. Several TWTW readers alertly informed us of this error. By the Richter scale, an increase from 8 to 9 represents an increase in strength of an earthquake of about 31.6 times, rather than 10 times, as previously stated.
****************************
TWTW Corrections and Amplifications: Nuclear power experts David Manuta and Martin Hertzberg clarified last week’s discussion concerning the reaction of zirconium with steam. The reaction does not occur until temperatures reach about 1000 deg C or more, depending upon the zirconium alloy. After his investigation of Three Mile Island, Hertzberg advised the Electric Power Research Institute that the oxidation of zirconium produces additional heat, raising temperatures, intensifying the chemical reaction, making the combination unstable. Further, he stated that in concentrations above 8% the hydrogen can be an explosive, creating pressures of 140 psi and above. TWTW stands ably corrected.
****************************
As its power to regulate carbon dioxide emissions continues to be questioned by the US House of Representatives, the US EPA continues to march forward claiming additional powers and claiming extremely questionable benefits. EPA is proposing new regulations on mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA claims an additional 17,000 lives will be saved each year.
The New York Times takes up the EPA clarion call, announcing the 17,000 lives saved each year as definitive. Several days later, a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine demonstrates that mercury is not an issue in the United States for diseases speculatively associated with mercury. Although the study covered only cardiovascular and similar diseases from the injection of mercury from fish, one must ask, what is the basis for EPA claims so trumpeted by NYT?
Several US Senators are calling for an accounting of EPA claims. TWTW believes EPA claims will crumble before any honest investigation. (Please see referenced under “EPA and other Regulators on the March.”
****************************
A US Federal Government funded report stated that the BP Oil Spill was directly caused by the failure of the blow-out preventer to properly close after the explosion on the BP oil drilling rig. According to the report, the blow-out preventer came within 1.4 inches of shutting off the drill pipe, but the explosion of the well caused a shift in the position of the pipe that prevented the blow-out preventer from fully closing.
Now doubt, any engineering and human operating procedures errors causing this failure must be addressed. But shall the recourses be denied? According to reports 4.9 millions of barrels of oil escaped through this small opening. How vast is the field? The poor safety record of BP is no reason for the administration to stop oil exploration and development in the Gulf. (Please see articles referenced under “BP Oil Spill and Administration Control of Drilling.”)
****************************
For several years, the defenders of the orthodoxy, including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have claimed that they can succeed to defeat the few “deniers” if only they could communicate better with the public. Spending tens of millions of dollars, the defenders of the orthodoxy have engaged international advertising firms, pressure groups, Hollywood, etc.
In this process, the defenders of the orthodoxy have shifted from human-caused global warming, to climate change, to climate disruption, and, now, carbon pollution. All of these terms to mask what they desire: control of carbon dioxide – a non-toxic gas, essential for life, that cannot be verified as a toxin by standard scientific tests.
As Bob Carter, and others, boldly expressed, language is important. The defenders of the orthodoxy are manipulating language, as described by George Orwell. Things are made to seem what they are not. (Please see referenced articles under “Communicating Better by Changing Language.”
ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see:
http://www.sepp.org…
1. Japan’s persistence prevails over panic
By Lana Spivak, American Council on Science and Health, Mar 21, 2011
No URL available.
2. Radiation Math: How Do We Count the Rays?
By Carl Bialik, WSJ, Mar 23, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704461…
3. We are walking greenhouse gas factories – will they come after us next?
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.icecap.us/…
4. Five Questions for DOE Secretary Chu (so what has DOE R&D done for you lately?)
By Glenn Schleede, Master Resource, Mar 15, 2011
http://www.masterresource.org/2011/03/five-questions…
[SEPP Comment: What is the return from spending $150 Billion?]
5. Tsunamis of Information
By Gordon Crovitz, WSJ, Mar 21, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704608…
6. Utopian Policies Boosting Prices For U.S. Energy
By Victor Davis Hanson, IBD, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/567…
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Hide the Decline: Sciencemag # 3
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 23, 2011
http://climateaudit.org/…
IPCC guru was a student when writing ‘authoritative’ reports
By Thomas Lifson, American Thinker, Mar 19, 2011 [H/t Catherine French]
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/03/ipcc_gur…
Challenging the Orthodoxy
What Really Threatens Our Future?
By Willie Soon and Barun Mitra, Townhall, Mar 22, 2011
http://townhall.com/columnists/williesoon/2011/03/21…
Global Greening Continues: Did We Cause It/
World Climate Report, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/03/…
More Climate Disruption Drivel
By Anthony Sadar and Stanley Penkala, American Thinker, Mar 22, 2011
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/03/more_climate_…
U.S. Life Expectancy at All-Time High
World Climate Report, Mar 17, 2011
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/03/…
Communicating Better by Changing Language
Granholm: Clean energy campaign to steer clear of climate
By Andrew Restuccia and Ben Geman -, Hill, Mar 23, 2011
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/151577-…
The Seas are Changing
Climate change-triggered high sea level led to more damage in Japan: Pachauri
By Staff Reporter, Hindu Times, Mar 23, 2011 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.hindu.com/2011/03/23/stories/201103235610…
[SEPP Comment: If the 17 cm (7.7 inch) increase in sea level during the 20th Century intensified the tsunami, what did the 400 foot increase in sea level from warming melting the Ice Age do?]
Education coordinator in sea level front page scare story in NJ Press ignores or distorts the facts
ICECAP, Mar 25, 2011
http://www.icecap.us/…
[SEPP Comment: ICECAP’s commentary is illuminating.]
Extreme Weather
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
2010 is in the books
By Ryan Maue, FSU, Feb 2011
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/…
Tropical Storm Activity Hits A 40-Year Low – Possibly “Unprecedented”!
By P. Gosselin, NoTricksZone, Mar 21, 2011 [H/t Marc Morano, Climate Depot]
http://notrickszone.com/2011/03/21/tropical-storm-ac…
Was 2010 the hottest ever?
By Jo Nova, Mar 23, 2011
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/was-2010-the-hottes…
Recent Weather Extremes: Global Warming Fingerprint Not
By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, Mar 21, 2011
http://www.masterresource.org/2011/03/recent-weather…
The Political Games Continue
Inhofe, Johanns Introduce Bill to Conduct Economic Analysis of EPA Rules
By Staff Writers, Power News, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/3540.html?hq_e=el&…
[SEPP Comment: Sorely needed!]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
CEI Study Challenges EPA Claim to Deliver $30 in Benefits for Every Dollar of Cost
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.globalwarming.org/2011/03/23/cei-study-ch…
EPA’s Utility MACT Proposal: Negative Economics for What?
By Scott Segal, Master Resource, Mar 17, 2011
http://www.masterresource.org/2011/03/epa-utility-ma…
Long-Delayed Rules for Cleaner Air
Editorial, NYT, Mar 20, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/opinion/21mon2.htm…
[SEPP Comment: The Gray Lady accepts EPA numbers as unquestionable. Yet, much of the airborne mercury and other pollutants come from China and India which show no interest in such regulations. The question is: do emissions from coal fired power plants in the US cause increases in death from mercury poisonings? See below.]
Mercury Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Two U.S. Cohorts
Mozaffarin, Dariush, MD, et al., New England Journal of Medicine, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1006876…
[Conclusions: “We found no evidence of any clinically relevant adverse effects of mercury exposure on coronary heart disease, stroke, or total cardiovascular disease in U.S. adults at the exposure levels seen in this study”. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.)]
Showdown in Texas over EPA climate rules
By Andrew Restuccia, Hill, Mar 24, 2011
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/151739-…
EPA Sets New GHG Reporting Deadline, Delays Water Intake System Rules
By Staff Writers, Power News, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/3539.html?hq_e=el&…
Texas Cites EPA Error in Testing of Wells
By Russell Gold, WSJ, Mar 23, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704461…
Stealth-And-Trade
Editorial, IBD, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/567…
EPA tackles acidic oceans
By Les Blumenthal, Olympian, Apr 4, 2010
http://www.theolympian.com/2010/04/04/1194489/epa-ta…
[SEPP Comment: A dated article that describes an issue coming to a head. The EPA is using its expanded powers under the Clean Air Act in which EPA claims carbon dioxide threatens human health and welfare to expand powers in regulating oceans.]
EPA tells states to consider rising ocean acidity
By Staff Writers, AP, Nov 16, 2010
http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/nov/16/epa-tells-…
[SEPP Comment: Totally missed on how EPA expands its preemptive power.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Andrew Bold interview of Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery exposes the futility of carbon control (with Note from Bob Carter)
ICECAP, Mar 25, 2011
http://www.icecap.us/…
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Pull the Plug on Electric Car Subsidies
They are costly and don’t do enough to protect the environment
May Margo Thorning, WSJ, Mar 24, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050…
[SEPP Comment: May be behind a pay wall.]
Energy Issues
China Leads in Nuclear
Nuclear construction milestones at Haiyang 2
By Staff Writers, World Nuclear News, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN_Nuclear_constru…
China 210 MWe pebble bed reactor starts construction in April, 2011
By Staff Writers, Next Big Future, Mar 23, 2011
http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/china-210-mwe-pebbl…
A Radical Kind of Reactor
By Keith Bradsher, NYT, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/energy-en…
Nuclear construction milestones at Haiyang 2
By Staff Writers, World Nuclear News, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN_Nuclear_constru…
US Restriction of Energy
Shouldn’t Canada – our largest oil supplier – come before Brazil?
By Mark Tapscott, Washington Examiner, Mar 21, 2011
http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confiden…
Western Energy Alliance documents top 10 ways federal bureaucrats are suffocating U.S. energy
By Mark Tapscott, Washington Examiner, Mar 20, 2011
http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confiden…
Top Ten Ways the Federal Government is Preventing Onshore Oil and Natural Gas Production
Western Energy Alliance
http://westernenergyalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/…
The new impossible energy no-fly zone
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Mar 16, 2011
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/03/16/terence-…
Calming Fears of Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Energy and Health, And he Benefits of Low-Dose Radiation Hormesis
By Jerry Cuttler, and Myron Pollycove, ASCH, Mar 27, 2009
http://www.acsh.org/publications/pubid.1790/pub_deta…
Fanning Fears of Nuclear Energy
The Worst Case: What If the Water Ran Dry in the Japanese Reactors?
By Eli Kintisch and Arian Cho, Science Insider, Mar 17, 2011 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/03/th…
Anxiety Up as Tokyo Issues Warning on Its Tap Water
By David Jolly and Denise Grady, NYT, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/world/asia/24japan…
Responses and Issues Remaining
Why what’s happened in Japan should be an ENDORSEMENT of nuclear power
By Michael Hanlon, Mail Online, UK, Mar 19, 2011 [H/t Malcolm Ross]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1367289/Ja…
Top Nuclear Aide Sees No Slowing of Sector
By Norihiko Shirouzu, WSJ, Mar 25, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050…
[SEPP Comment: May be behind a pay wall.]
Japan Nuclear Plans Derailed
By Mari Iwata, WSJ, Mar 25, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704517…
[SEPP Comment: May be behind a pay wall.]
Three lessons from Japan’s nuclear crisis
Obama will wreck his energy plan if he fails to learn them
By Iain Murry, Washington Times, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/23/thre…
Germany makes plans to abandon nuclear power
By Staff Writers, AP, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/23/germ…
Japan Nuclear Crisis Revives Long U.S. Fight on Spent Fuel
By Matthew Wald, NYT, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/us/24yucca.html?nl…
Obama’s nuclear negligence
Toying with waste storage exposes America to Japan-type disaster
Editorial, Washington Times, Mar 21, 2011
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/21/obam…
Daiichi Prompts Renewed Scrutiny of Existing, New Reactors
By Staff Writers, Power News, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/3538.html?hq_e=el&…
Natural gas to gain from nuclear crisis
By Staff Writers, Energy Daily, Mar 22, 2011 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Natural_gas_to_g…
America’s Last Nuclear Hope
By William Tucker, American Spectator, Mar 2011
http://spectator.org/archives/2011/03/21/americas-la…
It Could Happen Here
By Frank Von Hippel, NYT, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/opinion/24Von-Hipp…
BP Oil Spill and Administration Control of Drilling
A preventable bankruptcy in the Gulf of Mexico
Opinion by Randy Stilley, Washington Post, Mar 23, 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-preventable…
Device’s Design Flaw Let Oil Spill Freely
Government-Funded Study Finds Blowout Preventer Couldn’t Handle Worst-Case Scenario in Gulf; BP Gets a Small Boost
By Ben Casselman and Russell Gold, WSJ, Mar 24, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050…
[SEPP Comment: Article may be behind a pay wall.]
California Dreaming
Judge places California’s global warming program on hold
By Staff Writers, LA Times, Mar 21, 1011 [H/t Roger Cohen]
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2011/03/c…
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see
http://www.NIPCCreport.org…
Trends in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
Reference: Landsea, C.W., Vecchi, G.A., Bengtsson, L. and Knutson, T.R. 2010. Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. Journal of Climate 23: 2508-2519.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/22mar20…
Earth’s Incredible Dissolving Corals
Reference: Silverman, J., Lazar, B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K. and Erez, J. 2009. Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2008GL036282.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/22mar20…
The Response of Norwegian Sea Temperatures to Solar Forcing
Reference: Sejrup, H.P., Lehman, S.J., Haflidason, H., Noone, D., Muscheler, R., Berstad, I.M. and Andrews, J.T. 2010. Response of Norwegian Sea temperature to solar forcing since 1000 A.D. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: 10.1029/2010JC006264.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/23mar20…
The Impact of Urbanization on Indian Monsoon Rainfall
Reference: Kishtawal, C.M., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., Pielke Sr., R.A. and Shepherd, J.M. 2010. Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India. International Journal of Climatology 30: 1908-1916.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/23mar20…
Other Scientific News
No joke; Air Force actually creates supercomputer from Playstations
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 23, 2011
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/23/no-joke-air-fo…
Other News that May Be Of Interest
G.E.’s Strategies Let It Avoid Taxes Altogether
By Kavid Kocienewski, NYT, Mar 24, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/economy/2…
[SEPP Comment: An unusual article usually reserved for Exxon Mobil and other oil companies. According to the article, GE considers its tax department as a profit center.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
We can help combat ocean acidification
By Rebecca Martin, Columbian, Mar 20, 2011 [H/t Bill Turlay]
http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/mar/20/we-can-hel…
Uncertain Future for Joshua Trees Projected with Climate Change
By Staff Writers USGS, Mar 24, 2010 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2723…
[SEPP Comment: What happened to the trees during the long warm period of 8000 to 5000 years ago?]
PLEASE NOTE: The complete TWTW, including the full text of the articles, can be downloaded in an easily printable form at this web site: http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm…